Unravelling the uncertainties of predictions of natural disturbances on landscape vegetation patterns (2022-2026)

The specific project aims are (i) to investigate the uncertainty induced in long-term projections considering natural disturbances and climate change impacts and their interactions using ensemble impact modelling, emphasizing the models’ structural uncertainty, (ii) to conduct and analyze multi-model simulations considering disturbances and climate impact attribution, and (iii) to provide robust projections of forest landscape dynamics and associated ecosystem services under the influence of disturbances. We will primarily focus on European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) disturbance and its interactions with windthrow and drought. We will analyze the models’ uncertainty using at least four study areas in central Europe. The framework of Pattern-Oriented Modelling will be applied to decode the internal organization of the models.