Vegetation around us is facing rapid climate change. Forecasting vegetation responses is crucial for effective biodiversity
protection, restoration, and management. Yet we do not have a good understanding of plant and local microclimate
interactions which might be crucial to buffer climatic impacts. One major obstacle is our inability to use the full suite of
information related to climatic responses. Instead of incorporating (micro)climatic time-series into our analyses we use
crude summaries like long-term averages. The choice of these summaries is arbitrary, and they lead to throwing away
most of the climatic data which strongly limits our power to identify effects of climatic fluctuations.
In this project, we develop a new tool, flexible Bayesian hierarchical framework, which uses the full potential of
(micro)climatic data, makes the analyses of climatic effects data-driven, and ensures accurate estimations of uncertainty.
We test the tool thoroughly with simulations, real data, and model comparison and we use it to identify effects of
microclimate on forest vegetation.
The aim of this project is to create a pathway to unravel climatic effects in various settings by providing necessary tools
and guidance. Complex, yet ready-to-use and reliable framework will enable us to make informed decisions in face of
climate change.
Principal investigator: Adam Klimeš
Members from department: Josef Brůna, Martin Kopecký
Co-funded by the European Commission and the Central Bohemia Region.
“Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the Central Bohemian Region. Neither the European Union nor the Central Bohemian Region can be held responsible for them.”